and some late-night drama in the bronx as theankees hold on by a thread to their lead over the baltimore orioles in the division. the question is how will this playoff picture shake out, from new york to oakland. it's "way too early" for this. good morning, i'm willie geist and this is "way too early," the show whose polling shows it needs to have a big morning today or the race could well be over. good to have you up with us watching on msnbc, listening live at sirius xm radio. tweet me @williegeist or text awake to 622639. the next 30 minutes will be your cram session for this wednesday, october 3rd. a lot to tell you about, include a big decision in pennsylvania on voter i.d. we'll have the details on that.

plus, president herman cain makes his return to "the daily show" reminding america once again what it could have had. let's get to the news here at 30 rock in new york city. the first presidential debate a matter of hours away. a new battleground poll released moments ago shows where the race stans in ohio, virginia and florida. acoring to the nbc news/"wall street journal"/maris poll, ohio has opened up a lead in ohio among likely voters. in virginia, the president's lead shrunk to 2 points, well within the margin of error. there's a statistical tie there. the president held a five-point lead just last month. in florida, romney closed the gap as well. he's statistically tied with the president there. last month, romney trailed the president in that state by five points. a tight race all the way around. new national polls show the race tightening with 34 days to go.

head-to-head matchup here. this is nationally. president obama leading 49% to 46% among likely voters. again, within the margin of error and closer than it was two weeks ago. on the direction of the country, 40% say we're heading in the right direction. 53% say things are on the wrong track. 40% is the highest mark for this question in 3 1/2 years. there's also growing optimism about the economy. 57% say it's improving. that's the highest number this poll has recorded on this question. one thing not going the president's way here, his handling of the situations in egypt and libya. more people disapprove than approve on that question. as for mr. romney, it appears he's still paying for the comments about the 47%, 51% of respondents to this nbc poll say recent impressions made by the republican candidate make him less favorable. they view him less favorably. 28% say more favorably. both presidential candidates were off the trail as they prepared for tonight's debate.

the president spent the past couple of days working with his team in nevada. took a quick break to visit the hoover dam. why not while you're there. mitt romney was in colorado where he grabbed a burrito bowl at a local chipotle. he stopped to pose for pictures with this staff of the restaurant. love the guy on the right. amazing. presidential candidates spending most of their days in debate mode. it was up to the running mates to do the heavy lifting. joe biden was blasting the romney tax plan with being out of touch with the middle class. >> the romney/ryan tax plan will raise taxes on middle-class families with a child, one or more children by an additional $2,000 a year. how -- all kidding aside, without the boos. stop all that malarkey. this is deadly ernest, man. this is deadly ernest.

how they can justify -- how they can justify raising taxes on the middle class that's been buried the last four years. how in lord's name can they justify it? >> the romney campaign picked up on that middle class being buried for the last four years during which president obama was in the white house while campaigning in iowa. paul ryan did not miss the opportunity to seize on biden's choice of words. >> vice president biden just today said that the middle class over the last four years has been, quote, buried. we agree. of course the middle class has been buried. they're being buried by regulations. they're being buried by taxes. they're being buried by borrowing. they're being buried by the obama administration's economic failures. >> the romney campaign also chimed in on twitter writing agree with joe biden. the middle class has been buried the last four years which is why we need a change in

november, #can'tafford4more. later that today in asheville, north carolina vice president biden clarified that the middle class was buried by the policies that romney and ryan supported. see if you're convinced by that recovery. also yesterday, a video was relesioned by the daily caller, featuring then senator barack obama speaking to a group of african-american religious leaders in 2007. they are billing the video as a bombshell labelling it obama's other race speech. the video's publication widely seen as an effort to counter the damage inflicted on romney's candidacy by his hidden video comments about the 47%. in the video released yesterday, then candidate obama was critical of the government's response to hurricane katrina. >> when hurricane andrew struck in florida, people said, look at this devastation. we don't expect you to come up

with the money. here's the money to rebuild. we're not going to wait for you to scratch it together because you're part of the american family. what's happening down in new orleans? where's your dollar in where's your staff for that money? makes no sense. tells me the bullet hasn't been taken out. [ applause ] tells me that somehow the people down in new orleans, they don't care about as much. >> now, a portion of this speech had been covered by several news organizations, including msnbc. during the 2008 presidential campaign but yesterday, the speech in its entirety was made available and posted at the daily caller. it included comments mr. obama made praising his pastor at the time, the reverend jeremiah wright. less than a year later, president obama cut ties with mr. wright after clips came out of the pastor's racially charged sermons. the obama campaign released a

statement last night, calling the video a, quote, transparent attempt to change the subject ahead of the debate. the romney campaign distanced itself from the video saying it had no involvement with the release. paul ryan speaking about a moral tipping point in united states, six months before romney's 47% remark. >> before too long we could become a society we were never, ever intended to be. we could become a society where the net majority of americans are takers, not makers. today 70% of americans get more benefit from the federal government in dollar value than they pay back in taxes. you could argue that we're already past that tipping point. the good news is, survey after survey, poll after poll, still shows that we are a center right 70/0 country. 70% of americans want the american dream. they believe the american idea. only 30%en watt their welfare

state. what that tells us is at least half of those people currently in that category are there not of their wish or their will. >> ryan's comment were part of the keynote address at a gala dinner hosted by the american spectator. that was in november 201, ten months ago, well before he was considered to be a vice presidential running mate. a pennsylvania judge will let voters go to the polls without photo i.d., upholding a controversial state law that requires identification but stopping it from taking effect until after elections. voters in pennsylvania will be asked for i.d. but will still be able to vote if they don't have it. democrats are touting the ruling as a win for minority and low-income voters who they say might otherwise have been disenfranchised by that law. the raynes claim the law was common sense reform. according to the brennan center for justice which opposes voting law restrictions, 19 states have passed laws or executive actions since 2011 that impact voter turnout. of those, 14 are already in

effect, including the one in pennsylvania. now to business. home prices up 4.6% in august from a year ago. the largest year-over-year gain in six years. august marked the sixth consecutive month home prices rose in the united states. let's go to cnbc's jeff cutmore, live in london. >> good morning. you know how the saying goes, if there's a wealth effect in the housing market you get the trickle down. that's what we're talking about in this segment. we've seen this number coming out of core logic. they are suggesting a sharp rebound in home prices. it looks good on paper but let's not forget there's still more than one in five american home owners under water with negative equity. what it means downstream, though, recovery in the housing market we're seeing the rental market coming off steam, slowing takeup in the rental space. baer that in mind while mortgages are still affordable.

a lot of people thinking about home ownership over rental. one more to throw in here on the feel-good factor, beer sales are up. we have turned around three years of decleans. it seems americans are going out and buying beer and drunking beer. particularly from those specialty brewers. i had a look at the wine numbers just to see if they were losing out here. high-end wine sales are also higher. it seems maybe some of that trickle down from the housing market is finding itself into the bar tales. >> it cowl be viewed as bad news that everyone in the united states is boozing right now. jeoff cutmore, thank you. the oakland a's were completing an unbelievable division comeback. 13 games out of the first place, now tied for the lead coming into the end of the season.

there's been a lot of dorky talk about, quote, zingers being released tonight by the candidates. jimmy fallon put on a romney suit. that clip an a check of weather when we come back. [ male announcer ] how do you measure happiness?

by the armful? by the barrelful? the carful? how about...by the bowlful? campbell's soups give you nutrition, energy, and can help you keep a healthy weight. campbell's. it's amazing what soup can do. wouldn't it be nice if there was an easier, less-expensive option than using a traditional lawyer? well, legalzoom came up with a better way. we took the best of the old and combined it with modern technology. together you get quality services on your terms, with total customer support. legalzoom documents have been accepted in all 50 states, and they're backed by a 100% satisfaction guarantee. so go to legalzoom.com today and see for yourself. it's law that just makes sense.

to prove that febreze car vent clips could eliminate the odor. [ woman ] take a deep breath, tell me what you smell. something fresh. a clean house. [ woman ] take your blindfolds off. oh!! hahahaha!!! [ male announcer ] febreze car. eliminates odors, so you can breathe happy. [ male announcer ] febreze car. you know it can be hard to lbreathe, and how that feels.e, copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva helps control my copd symptoms by keeping my airways open for 24 hours. plus, it reduces copd flare-ups. spiriva is the only once-daily

inhaled copd maintenance treatment that does both. spiriva handihaler tiotropium bromide inhalation powder does not replace fast-acting inhalers for sudden symptoms. tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating, or an enlarged prostate. these may worsen with spiriva. discuss all medicines you take, even eye drops. stop taking spiriva and seek immediate medical help if your breathing suddenly worsens, your throat or tongue swells, you get hives, vision changes or eye pain, or problems passing urine. other side effects include dry mouth and constipation. nothing can reverse copd. spiriva helps me breathe better. (blowing sound) ask your doctor about spiriva. wow. i'm told somewhere in that picture is the united states capital building. you have to take my word for it.

5:44 in the morning. let's get a check on the weather from bill karins. what's going on. humid and foggy on the mid-atlantic east coast. visibility way down. give yourself extra time getting to work. it will be a slow drive. some people even put the flashers on this morning. very dense, even for the new york city area. you can barely see the buildings from a short distance away. southern connecticut under a dense fog advisory through baltimore and down to washington, d.c. pockets of dense fog and expect airline delays this morning because of the fog. once the fog breaks it will be a warm day. some areas from d.c. southward will get into the mid-80s today. it will feel like summer. the cold airen is 0 the way. it won't arrive in d.c. until sunday, that's when the highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. until then, it will feel like summertime with high humidity. the cooler air arriving in

montana. it will sweep across the plains over the next couple of days. areas like minneapolis and kansas city and up towards chicago, the cool air will finally arrive. some people looking forward to it. it's been a warm air so far. this will be first ped of below average temperatures. >> not in washington, a muggy 86 degrees. >> i know. >> thanks so much. let's turn to sports now. a couple o major league playoff races still undecided on the second to last day of the regular season. the yankees and red sox in the bronx. the orioles won a 1-0 pitcher's duel earlier in the night. a yankee loss would mean a tie atop the a. lnch east heading into the last game of the season tonight. pick it up in the ninth inning, james loney, looks like he's giving them insurance. a solo home run off soriano. that's a bomb. red sox up 3-1. somewhere in st. petersburg, florida, the orioles liking what they see. bottom of the ninth, runner on

for raul ibanez, ties the game with a clutch two-run home run. evens things at three. bottom of the 192th, ibanez pokes one through the left side, goes the other way. that's the game-winning run. raul ibanez is your hero. a huge 4-3 victory for the new york yankees. they control their own destiny. still a game up in the division, can lock up the a.l. east title with a win tonight. a's taking on the rangers with a chance to draw even with them in the a.l. west. scoreless in the third. josh hamilton puts one in the gap. that gets to the wall. rbi double. rangers on the board, first 1-0. still 1-0 in the fifth. derrick norris, the a's lines one to right feel. tieing run scores from third there. nelson cruz has trouble with it. the go-ahead run comes around from second. a's never gave back the lead. they good on to win, 3-1. a's and rangers tied atop the

a.l. west. they will decide this thing tonight in the final game of the season. 161 games and it comes down to tonight. a's one of the great stories in baseball. they were 13 games behind the rangers. on june 30th. in the national league, the cardinals and dodgers playing for the final wild card spot. dodgers facing a must whiff behind game against the giants. dodgers down a run in the second. adrian gonzalez went deep the other way. is he going to get that? yes. nice catch at the wall. nady comes up perfectly, taking away an extra-base hit there. that was difference. the dodgers lose 4-3. with that, dodgers eliminated from the playoff race. that blockbuster trade didn't do a lot to help them. they were 14-21 after that deal. cardinals earn the last playoff spot in the majors. it will be the reds, the nationals, the giants, braves and cardinals in the national league with all the division winners already set.

so the braves and cardinals have that one-game playoff in the wild card. less clear in the american league, rangers, a's, tigers, orioles, yankees all in but two pennant winners have yet to be determined. a couple of times trying to stay out of that wild card game. with all this talk, you might wonder why we're going to show you a pinch-hit at-bat in the marlins game. greenberg got a second chance to step to the plate in the big leagues last night at the age of 31. his at-bat came against 20-game winner r.a. dickey. he respected him enough to pitch him like any other big leaguer. he struck out swinging but got a standing ovation from the crowd in miami. said after the game he could not have been happier with the way things turned out. coming up at the top of the hour on "morning joe," live from washington, new polling numbers from three key battleground

states. just out minutes ago, set the backdrop. whelihan did i cap that thing with the "morning joe" crew. when we come back, we'll huddle around the water cooler to watch herman cain. this reduced sodium soup says it may help lower cholesterol, how does it work? you just have to eat it as part of your heart healthy diet. step 1. eat the soup. all those veggies and beans, that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. i wish i could keep it this way. [ male announcer ] now you can. with the crest pro-health clinical line. used together, they help keep your teeth 97% as clean as a dental cleaning. the toothpaste actually reduces plaque. and the rinse reaches all areas and is clinically proven to help prevent plaque regrowth. crest pro-health clinical line. together, they help keep your teeth 97% as clean as a dental cleaning. crest. life opens up when you do.

as you know by now, tonight

is the first of three 90-minute debates between president obama and mitt romney. the two men have not been on the same stage together in nearly eight years. tens of millions of people will tune in to watch the keanes go head-to-head for the first time. tell your friends 52.8 million people watched the first debate between senator john mccain and then senator obama four years ago. 80% of the country's adults reported watching at least some of the presidential debates in 2008. enough of the real news, let's huddle up around the water cooler to get you ready for the rumble in the rockies. aides to president obama said he's focusing on looking calm. romney's team says it is loading up the candidate with zingers, one-liners aim the at the president. the campaign told "the new york times" last week, quote, mr. romney's team has concluded that debates are about creating moments and has equipped him with a series of zingers that he's memorized and has been

practicing on aides since august. the zinger strategy apparently includes luring president obama into appearing smug or evasive in his responses, especially on questions of the economy. this is where jimmy fallon comes in. >> tomorrow is the first of three debates between myself and president obama. i'm looking forward to having a serious conversation with my opponent about the issues. i've always prepared a few zingers for the occasion. for example, when we greet each other on stage before the debate, i'll put my finger on obama's tie and say, there's something on your tie. when he looks down, i'll slide my finger from his sternum to his nostrils and say, boop. for instance, when obama is talking during the debate i'll interrupt him and say that's what she said? ha, ha, ha. gets them every time.

last week, my campaign leaked a memo telling everyone to lower expectations for my performance in these debates. as we all know barack obama is an extremely gifted speaker. you might even say he's a master debater. that's what she said? you got zing. you got zing. >> i don't know, man. fallen is giving zadakas a run for his moment on this romney impression. here's the latest. >> mr. president, china is demanding that the u.s. pay back its debt in full immediately. failure to do so will bring on financial apocalypse. you need to look into that camera and convince the people of china we are good to pay back that debt. >> why you got to play me like that, china? when you loan that money to my predecessors, did you really

think you were going to get it back? >> china's not budging but we have just had the results back from your latest presidential physical and it tornadoes out you have telepathic powers. look into that camera and convince the chinese they need to step down. >> it's your move. >> there's still time. there's still time for president cain. write him in in november, won you? still ahead on "way too early," why are you still awake? tweets, texts and e-mails are next. "morning joe," live from washington, just moments away. [ male announcer ] for the dreamers...

and those well grounded. for what's around this corner...

and the next. there's cash flow options from pnc. solutions to help businesses like yours accelerate receivables, manage payments, and help ensure access to credit. because we know how important cash flow is to reaching your goals. pnc bank. for the achiever in you. check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic. boring. boring. [ jack ] after lauren broke up with me, i went to the citi private pass page and decided to be...not boring. that's how i met marilyn... giada... really good. yes! [ jack ] ...and alicia. ♪ this girl is on fire [ male announcer ] use any citi card to get the benefits of private pass. more concerts, more events,

more experiences. [ jack ] hey, who's boring now? [ male announcer ] get more access with the citi card. [ crowd cheering, mouse clicks ] we want to know why you're up at this hour. >> awake watching my poll numbers, popularity in my house will determine whether the kids get pancakes or pop-tarts for breakfast. >> are you asking about registered or likely children in your household? >> go with pop-tarts. >> wonder what was going through that guy's mind at